China-EU trade exchange
The future of trade relations between the EU and China is clouded in fog, the EU ambassador to Beijing, Jorge Toledo, announced after negotiations with Beijing over the past four years have failed to produce satisfactory results on trade issues middle.
Referring to the progress of the negotiations between the two sides, the EU ambassador in Beijing expressed regret in a statement last week that the trade talks between the two sides have not achieved any substantive results despite limited progress in the past. Years, from his words:
- The EU needs to achieve impressive results on this front this year.
- High-level economic talks between the two countries are scheduled to be held in September next year.
EU-China relations have been in a state of “cautious expectation” for more than a year. In May, the European Union announced it would revise its stance on China to reduce its economic dependence on China amid misgivings between Beijing and Moscow over the Ukraine war, one of the most acrimonious issues surrounding the dispute. between Europe and Beijing.
In recent months, in addition to discussing the situation in Ukraine, European officials have visited China several times to discuss a number of documents, as part of steps to achieve breakthroughs on outstanding issues, especially since “Measures”.
Speaking to Sky Arab News, analysts did not rule out any progress in the talks in the future, although the process continues.
Hot docs behind deal difficulties
In this regard, Mohammad Raghee Barakat, an expert on European affairs, predicts that the EU will face difficulties in reaching a trade agreement with China. Especially with the current crisis between the two sides, the United States is pressing China to put pressure on Russia, asking it to stop the war and withdraw its troops from Ukrainian territory.
In an interview with “Sky News Arab Economy”, Rajai said that the negotiations between China and EU countries are difficult to proceed as originally planned to reach an agreement because of various reasons. Prominent among these is the lack of trust between China and the EU, both as an alliance and on a bilateral level with member states, explaining that this trust is missing day by day, especially because China is seen as a member of the EU. a member. The European Union has become a fierce rival economically, which has led to heightened tensions in relations.
To that, he added other reasons and signs that would make it harder for the two sides to reach an agreement, including:
- The EU has adopted a special vision of “the need to find an alternative to China” and reduce its economic dependence on China in many areas, so as not to repeat the mistakes it made when it relied on Russia to finance the EU’s gas. , petroleum and other raw materials.
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Latin American countries to obtain raw materials to replace the EU’s imports from China, which affected the relationship between the two sides.
- Moreover, what is happening now, especially the war in Ukraine, has not been hidden from China, and it has been exposed that NATO believes that China poses a certain threat to the West.
- The action plan adopted by the heads of state and governments of NATO member states, which was adopted about two years ago, before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, is entitled “Confronting the Russian threat”, which the United States hopes to add to the threat Beijing poses to the European Union and the West. “China”.
All of these factors make it difficult for the two sides to reach a successful deal, even though China was the first country in the world to trade with Europe, which relies on China for a large part of its imports, he said. China, China has also made large and significant investments in the Alliance countries over the past three decades. “
China is an influential economic power for Europe, with total trade between the EU and China rising by around 23% in 2022 compared to 2021 to reach 856.3 billion euros (912.6 billion euros), according to Eurostat. Dollar).
Continue the negotiating process…and put pressure on Beijing
On the other hand, Mohammad Rabih Dehi, a researcher on international relations, ruled out the idea of a failure in the current negotiations in an exclusive statement to the Sky News Arab Economy website, explaining that the second round of negotiations will be held in September next year, according to the EU announcement. Held in January, it means the negotiation track remains despite EU ambassador to China Jorge Toledo’s announcement that the trade talks have failed.
He pointed out that there are still some unresolved differences with Chinese negotiators, especially that China has not made too many concessions to Europe. He interpreted the Western statement as an attempt by Europe to pressure China to respond to European demands. Especially given the development of the situation in Ukraine and its impact on the global economy, the leaders of European countries now have no intention of clashing or sparking disputes with China.
Regarding the length of the negotiations, international relations experts pointed out that negotiations with China always take a long time. For example, European countries and China reached an investment agreement at the end of 2020 after 7 years of negotiations, and pointed out that the negotiation behavior to reach an agreement with China will take a long time, and four years may mean the beginning of the negotiation process.
He explained that European countries have no clear strategy to deal with the China issue because of differences among European countries on coping mechanisms, coupled with US pressure on EU countries, and pointed out some problems. European leaders see no need to ignite a trade crisis with China. Currently and postponed until the European economy recovers from the crisis it is going through and the impact of the war in Ukraine and the new crown epidemic, in addition, some leaders believe that the dispute with China is long-term and needs more time to deal with Beijing mechanism to reach an agreement.
- EU Foreign Policy Commissioner Josep Borrell announced earlier that EU foreign ministers agreed that it is necessary to reconsider the EU’s China strategy.
- The European official attributed this to “China’s recent internal developments and foreign policy path” and emphasized the need to reduce economic dependence on China.
- Borrell stressed that the EU faces economic security issues in its relations with China.
the future of relationships
Al-Daihi believes that the failure to reach an agreement between the EU and China will not affect the future of relations between the two countries in the near future (..), stressing that the controversial document and European concerns about the development of the Chinese economy are well known and more capable Telling is the assertion by EU Foreign Policy Commissioner Josep Borrell that EU foreign ministers agree on the need to rethink the EU’s China strategy (..).
He expects European leaders to continue negotiating with China, but using different mechanisms and using a variety of pressure tactics to reach a deal with Beijing that China may not be in a rush to reach a deal, especially given how long it will take for China to reach a deal . The negotiation process and decision-making are in a state of deliberation, with the purpose of buying more time and opportunities to achieve more goals and advantages.
European pressure on China
International relations experts believe that European countries are at a serious impasse, as evidenced by demonstrations in France, Spain, Germany and France, due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, high inflation and wider repercussions within Europe. Many other European countries, apart from the recent visit of European officials to Beijing and expressing the need not to treat China in the same way or in the same way as the United States, illustrate that Europe is eager to establish a new stage of relations with China, on the basis of developing economic relations, especially considering to the pressure on European economies under the weight of the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia.
He explained that apart from Taiwanese newspapers, there are not many European countries playing the pressure card against Beijing, and because of the danger of this card, these countries are not willing to use this card. He emphasized that Europe’s mechanisms for confronting China have weakened, and it (Europe) will somehow rely on statements to express its fears. Starting from the failure of negotiations, the European investment documents in China and even the human rights documents released by the European Parliament were used to obstruct the passage. The investment agreement signed in 2020 even tries to remove China’s developing country status and make China deal with developed countries, which will deprive China of many trade advantages, as well as development subsidies.
China’s economy in 8 years
into the dark tunnel
Dr. Hamid Fares, a professor of international relations, explained that there are growing calls within the EU to reduce economic dependence on China, especially with the strengthening of Sino-Russian relations, which has generally worried the West: although Beijing China formally declares neutrality for the first time and seeks to end the war, but China may support Russia militarily against Ukraine.
He added in an exclusive statement to the Sky News Arab Economy website that China’s announcement was based on the fact that amidst the turbulent situation, the West is eager to resume engagement with China and find new standards of relations. Coupled with the unstable geopolitical climate, the failure of China-EU trade negotiations has brought China-EU relations into a “dark tunnel”, and things have become more complicated and tangled.
He blamed the complication on the EU’s heavy commercial and economic reliance on China, its No. 1 trading partner, a so-called “suicide dependency” because of trade imbalances between them. Especially since the cessation of negotiations in early 2021, the relationship has cooled. The Comprehensive Investment Agreement strives to maximize the interests of both parties, providing a unified legal framework for both parties, and replacing the 20 bilateral agreements between China and the EU in the investment field.
Difficult documents reflected in negotiations
He added that Europe cannot be short of Chinese products, but the failure to reach an economic understanding has been greatly affected by political differences, including China’s stance on the war in Ukraine and allegations of supporting Russia militarily, as well as Covid-19 compensation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and Security issues, the European economy has almost been controlled by the Chinese.
McNally: Staying away from China may slow down emissions cuts
He pointed out that the failure of the negotiations between the two sides over the past four years clearly shows that the differences between the two sides are widening and reaching an understanding has become impossible. Given that the conflict has now evolved into a battle for the presidency of the world, it shows that China has become one of the influential poles in the new world order, both politically and economically, and the West has also become an influential pole in the new world order. One of the poles. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said China was a “challenge to the world order”.
The professor of international relations believes that the EU will not be able to impose European strategies on China, and Europe will not have a unified position, especially because Europe cannot do without Chinese products with large sales volume.
He went on to say, “China shipped 6.4 million containers to Europe last year, while the EU only shipped 1.6 million containers.” Moreover, EU investment in China has dropped by as much as 50%, so Europe is not yet ready to allocate. The current relationship with China is because it poses a risk to European economic security.