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Market Report: Does Accounting Season Bring New Momentum?


market report

Status: 07/14/2023 09:51 AM

After five straight days of gains, investors eased into the weekend. The U.S. accounting season, which starts today, could push prices even higher.

The DAX opened the week’s final session down 0.1 percent at 16,123. Germany’s main stock index continued its rebound yesterday, closing up 0.7% at 16,141 points. Not only recorded the fifth consecutive day of profit, but also made up for the previous four consecutive losses.

According to Helaba’s daily outlook, a test of 16,207, an interim high from early July, appears likely. According to experts’ assessment, “a route above this level will open up the potential of up to 16,427 points. Support can be found in the area of ​​the average line around 15,960 points, and then at 15,800 points”. Given the recent rally, it wouldn’t be surprising if some market participants decided to take profits.

Thomas Altmann of QC Partners said the sentiment on the stock exchange was already very positive. The optimism was fueled by a surprisingly sharp drop in U.S. inflation. How things play out in the coming weeks depends first and foremost on earnings season, according to Altman.

Big banks such as Wells Fargo, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase were among the first in the financial industry to open their books. The situation can be both good and bad. On the one hand, higher interest rates help these institutions because customers have to pay more for loans. On the other hand, loan demand is also weakening. In addition, the bank’s lucrative businesses such as acquisitions, mergers and initial public offerings have also declined. Wells Fargo and JPMorgan are due to report at 12:45 p.m. and Citigroup at 2 p.m.

Commerzbank analyst Andreas Hürkamp expects the second half of the year to be fairly weak for corporate balance sheets overall: “We think there will be more and more earnings revisions in the second half of the year, so the DAX, Euro Stoxx 50 and S&P 500 Expected earnings growth for the indices should all come down to minus 5 percent.” Hürkamp said these negative earnings revisions were an important reason why Commerzbank expects a consolidation in the coming months after a strong first-half performance.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones index closed up 0.1% yesterday to 34,395 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 1.6% to 14,138. The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 4,510.

In June, U.S. producer prices edged up just 0.1% compared to the same month a year earlier. Peter Cardillo, chief financial markets economist at Spartan Capital Securities, said it was further confirmation that inflation was starting to ease after consumer prices edged up. “Investors are now at the stage where: ‘Let’s focus on company performance,'” said David Russell at brokerage TradeStation.

Investors in Japanese stocks remained cautious over the weekend. Jun Morita of Chibagin Asset Management said investors were awaiting the outcome of the Bank of Japan meeting and the progress of the upcoming earnings season. The Nikkei fell to 32,391 and the Topix lost 0.2%. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will hold a two-day meeting at the end of July.

In China, speculation that the government is about to take economic stimulus measures supported the stock market. Recently, China’s economic data has been weak. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.2%, while the main Shanghai and Shenzhen companies index rose 0.1%.

The euro extended gains from the past few sessions on Friday, touching its highest level in nearly a year and a half. The euro continued to benefit from a weaker dollar amid speculation that U.S. interest rate rises will slow. In the morning, the euro rose as high as $1.1243 against the dollar. The last time prices reached this high was in February 2022. In a week, the euro rose more than 2% against the dollar.

Oil prices were little changed on Friday. In the morning, the price of a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent crude oil for September delivery was $81.36, unchanged from the previous night. A barrel of U.S.-grade West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for August delivery edged up 2 cents to $76.91.

However, in the past few sessions, the price has increased significantly. North Sea crude prices have risen by more than three dollars a barrel since Monday. Since crude oil is traded in U.S. dollars on world markets, a weaker dollar makes the commodity cheaper in non-dollar countries, boosting demand and supporting prices.

Markus Schäfer, technical director of Mercedes, said that the current Chinese electric vehicle market is very competitive in terms of sales volume. “The price war in China is particularly fierce in the area of ​​volume,” Schaeffer said in an online discussion at management consultancy PwC. Even China’s traditionally state-owned automakers BAIC and SAIC, joint venture partners of Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen, are struggling in the market BYD currently manages.

Mercedes-Benz itself focuses on the high-end and luxury car market, but the brand has a “negligible” market share in the fast-growing Chinese electric vehicle market. Including combustion models, the Swabian will have a ten to twelve percent share in its segment.

Fragrance group Douglas could return to the stock market next year. “Private equity firms like our major shareholder CVC typically have a five- to seven-year plan and then exit,” said Sander van der Laan, Douglas boss at the Rheinische Post. “CVC has been with Douglas since 2015. cooperation, so if you deduct the impact during the new crown epidemic, it may be in the second stage of investment.” In 2013, Douglas was delisted from the stock exchange after financial investors Advent and the Kreke family made a takeover offer, and in 2017, it will be largely A portion of the stake was sold to private equity firm CVC.

Telecom provider Nokia is struggling with inflation and rising interest rates as customers are reluctant to invest. So the Finns will have to lower their stakes in order to meet their annual goals. The economic outlook and continued destocking led to weak demand. Both sales and profit targets were lowered.