Russia and the European Union
Europe has shown a clear determination to continue to support Ukraine and to engage effectively in US policy towards the current war, despite the heavy price it pays for its financial and military support of Kiev. As a result of sanctions imposed on Russia, its economy has suffered varying degrees of severe damage, affecting most of the eurozone countries.
On the other hand, many realistic Western politicians eager to end the war have called for open borders with Russia as a way to achieve a breakthrough in the upcoming negotiations to end the war and reduce its impact. against the possibility of escalation.
And in order to reach an economic understanding on major issues, such as the “food export” document, which can be dealt with by making limited concessions or reaching an agreement to the satisfaction of all parties.
The collapse of the Black Sea food deal, after Russia announced it was suspending its participation, reflects the urgent need for wider channels of communication between the West and Europe that could help reach direct understandings on many fundamental issues.
ukraine concerns
Ukrainians, on the other hand, fear that these channels of communication will be an area to abandon Kiev and reach an unsatisfactory deal, as clearly shown by Ukraine’s reaction to the recently disclosed talks, which took place between former U.S. officials . Lavrov met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei in New York in April, as did former U.S. diplomat and outgoing Council on Foreign Relations Chairman Richard Haas and two former White House aides.
The disclosure of those conversations led to “treason charges”, and for many Ukrainians, the idea of contacting Russian representatives was “ridiculous”. British journalist Alec Russell said that despite fears from others, any engagement with Western realist politicians eager to see the war end would “fall into a Russian trap, leading to a bad deal with Ukraine’s interests betrayed.” “. An article in the Financial Times.
According to the author, “It is very important that the West can influence Moscow’s mentality by presenting harsh realities… Ukraine fears being completely betrayed, but the US and its allies can use secret talks to convince Putin of their resolve”.
“The West needs to let Moscow know how serious our resolve is… It also needs to determine who to talk to and whom to trust, the value of Russian expertise in Western foreign ministries has been overlooked for years,” he said, devaluing it. “
communication line
“European officials must keep lines of communication open with Russia if they are honest with their people and themselves,” Mohammad Raj Barakat, a European affairs expert from Brussels, said in an exclusive statement to Sky News Arab Economy, noting that The crisis manifests itself in this: their submission to US policy, based on the military protection that Washington provides to Europe through NATO.
He added: “Many European officials, including ex-officials I spoke to, one of whom was a former defense minister, believe that the European Commission made a mistake in clearly and unhesitatingly supporting the EU position. Ukrainian President Vladimir Vladimir Kimir Zelensky is clearly involved.” The Nord Stream pipeline explosion, and rumors of the presence of explosives at the Zaporozhye NPP (denied by the IAEA).
He continued, “I believe that if European officials and even heads of state and government were to speak in person without political affiliation, their positions could differ from the current ones (referring to the European commitment to Russia, although these positions are given to the West. had a negative impact)”.
Barakat pointed out that “the West must keep the communication channels with Moscow open, because cutting off ties means going to direct armed conflict.” He emphasized that from a practical point of view, NATO is actively participating in the war through its support for Ukraine.
upgrade each other
The tone of mutual statements between Russia and Europe has intensified. Russia has finally drawn a red line before the West, and through its Foreign Minister Lavrov said that sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine is a red line, crossing which will lead to a direct collision.
But on the other hand, there are also some priority documents with a less harsh tone, as in the case of the food agreement. The Financial Times has revealed that ahead of Russia’s withdrawal from a deal to export grain through the Heihe sea-EU is studying a proposal by the Russian Agricultural Bank to create a subsidiary that would allow him to reconnect to the global financial network as a way to appease Moscow. a way of
Under the auspices of Turkey and the United Nations, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement on grain exports across the Black Sea in Istanbul in July 2022. Despite the war, Ukraine has allowed some 33 million tons of grain to be exported.
Europe’s lifeline
In an exclusive statement to Sky News Arab Economics, Paris-based journalist and author Nizar Gilidi said that “Western capitals are destined to open their doors to Russia because of the food artery that connects the world and also connects the world” Apart from energy issues Otherwise, it is in Russian hands. “Europe, after a severe recession, has not found a suitable solution (in terms of volumes, prices and transport) except for its Russian partners.
He explained that the issue of food prices on international markets “has been very disturbing to Western economies” as part of the fallout from the Russian crisis.
He added, “The West has to keep the channel open with Moscow…they are actually having discussions with the Russian side behind the scenes, and despite US pressure on the European authorities, they (the West) are forced to keep their promises (. ..) The West has no other solution but to discuss it with the Russians.” Moscow and sit at the negotiating table with it.
He emphasized that the West realizes that, given the geographic proximity and basic diplomatic and strategic work with Russia, the biggest loser in this equation is the European side, so “they are forced to keep an open communication.” channel”.
At the same time, he explained that Russia survives on the elite of the war economy, so the damage suffered is invisible. Considering that the Russian economy is also capable of a war economy, but the Western economy is not, the evidence is that they are now in a lot of trouble, especially given their material commitment to supporting Ukraine financially and economically. arms.
According to Jalihi, Russia cannot be classified as a loser from a political and economic point of view because of the loss of relations with Europe, so that the EU economy falls sharply, especially since we are facing popular uprisings within Europe, which may lead to economic recession. The choice of subordination of numerous governments plagued many countries, and the involvement of the United States in this war brought huge material, economic and political losses to the European Union.
In an analysis by U.S. military and national security expert Tobin Harshaw previously published by the Bloomberg Network, he emphasized the importance of opening channels of communication between Russia and the West at a time when the West’s position is currently being summed up. Tend to need to give Kiev a chance to improve its position before talking about sitting at the negotiating table.
“Since last May, neither the West nor Ukraine has attempted to test whether Russian President Vladimir Putin or his representatives are willing to sit at the negotiating table,” he noted.
a big event
Ukraine, on the other hand, fears it will end up with a grand deal in which it must abandon its formal goal of defeating Russia and regaining control of all territories, including Crimea. Alec Russell, a British journalist, said some European officials cited Finland’s ceding of 10 percent of its territory to the Soviet Union after the Winter War of 1939-40 as an example of a deal.
But the author argues that “multiple layers of secret talks are necessary”, explaining that the April talks “are just one of many secret channels, not the most important (..) Whether Russia loses or enters a new deadlock “There is growing concern among Ukrainian supporters that this is the most likely scenario, that at some point all negotiations are inevitable, and that the more early engagement, the better.