According to the Federal Employment Agency, Germany has a shortage of skilled workers in 200 of around 1,200 occupations – 52 more than in the previous year. Nursing, child care and construction industries have been particularly affected.
In Germany, one in every six occupations is in short supply of skilled workers. This is the result of an analysis by the Federal Employment Agency (BA). As a result, bottlenecks occurred in 200 of the roughly 1,200 occupations assessed last year. Nuremberg authorities said that was 52 more than a year earlier. This means that the number of bottleneck occupations has risen to a new high.
Nursing professions, professional drivers, medical specialists, construction and craft professions, childcare, automotive engineering and IT professions are particularly affected by the shortage of skilled workers, according to the analysis. In 2022, hotel or food service, metal construction, and bus drivers were added compared to the previous year. According to the study, half of job openings last year were in one of these underskilled occupations.
Supply and demand are separating
However, the study also clearly shows how much difference there is between supply and demand when it comes to filling job vacancies: only 26% of skilled workers registered as unemployed are looking for work in one of the bottleneck occupations. According to the BA, this part of the labor market is experiencing a growing shortage of skilled workers compared to previous years.
However, there is no evidence of widespread labor shortages. Employment and the number of employed people subject to social security contributions will increase significantly by 2022. Most recently, the unemployment rate edged down to 5.5% in May. However, the company’s demand for new employees continues to increase. In the fourth quarter of last year, the IAB Employment Survey reported another record high of nearly 2 million job vacancies.
For the analysis of the skilled worker shortage, the Federal Employment Agency considered approximately 1,200 occupational fields and assessed them on the basis of a total of 14 indicators. We speak of a bottleneck occupation when the six indicators primarily point to a bottleneck. These include, for example, the length of time registered positions have been filled, job-specific unemployment rates and wage developments. In addition to bottleneck occupations, 157 occupational categories were observed by BA for high score values.
Transforming Work Through Artificial Intelligence
Another challenge in the labor market is the current boom in artificial intelligence (AI). Countries around the world must better prepare individually for the expected changes, according to the United Nations development agency UNDP. Achim Steiner, head of the UN Development Program at the dpa news agency, said countries with young populations would have to deal with entirely different challenges than aging societies due to possible job losses. “As always, it is more likely that societies that are preparing for this will not somehow automatically fall into this situation, but can devise transition strategies that are more likely to benefit.”
In finding ways to master new technologies, the future will require a “more careful and differentiated” look at which jobs will be affected, which jobs will be eliminated and which jobs will be recreated. It is also important not to create the wrong incentives to drive automation faster. As an example of such perverse incentives, Germany’s UN top representative, Steiner, cited the fact that human work is often heavier than mechanized work performed by robots.
The World Economic Forum estimates that one in four jobs will undergo a major change over the next five years due to rapid advances in artificial intelligence. Media and entertainment, public administration, education, agriculture, health, energy, manufacturing, and hotels and restaurants are particularly affected. Consequently, there will be new roles mainly in the areas of technology and digitization.